Darren Page, DLD Lead Scout
Part 1: Intro and pre-draft transactions
Part 4: Rankings 10-1
Parts two, three, and four are all about analyzing how teams improved themselves. Perceived value of players and the filling of needs is secondary to infusing rosters with talent.
10. Atlanta Falcons (-5)
Starting total: 1823 points … net from draft day trading: -1% of assets
1.06 – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M (971 points, 53% of assets)
2.05 – Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota (349 points, 19% of assets)
3.04 – Dezmen Southward, S, Wisconsin (187 points, 10% of assets)
4.03 – Devonta Freeman, RB, Florida State (100 points, 5% of assets)
4.39 – Prince Shembo, OLB, Notre Dame (60 points, 3% of assets)
5.07 – Ricardo Allen, CB, Purdue (55 points, 3% of assets)
5.28 – Marquis Spruill, ILB, Syracuse (45 points, 2% of assets)
7.38 – Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut (17 points, 1% of assets)
7.40 – Tyler Starr, OLB, South Dakota (17 points, 1% of assets)
How they got better: Atlanta was lucky enough to fall into the best pass-blocking tackle in the draft. Jake Matthews will improve their offense considerably. Matt Ryan is purely a pocket quarterback and Matthews will keep pockets clean with his technical consistency and quick feet.
Ra’Shede Hageman becomes the most physically talented defensive lineman for the Falcons. His flashes of brilliance can turn games on their heads. The trick is getting a fire lit under Hageman and developing his gap discipline and pad level. That’s quite a bit it turns out.
Adding Devonta Freeman on the third day was productive. He’s a better player than Jacquizz Rodgers day one and can take over for Stephen Jackson eventually. Freeman is an energetic runner with developed pass-blocking and pass-catching skills.
Both Ricardo Allen and Yawin Smallwood look like players who will develop into contributors defensively.
How they didn’t get better: Dezmen Southward is an athletic safety with size, but other issues overshadow that. His coverage instincts and awareness aren’t great. For a third round safety, he should be more of a playmaker as well.
Prince Shembo never lived up to his potential as a rusher at Notre Dame. He is more of a developmental backup than an immediate contributor at a premium position.
Overall: The Falcons added talented in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which was where they drastically needed it. Jake Matthews will become a solid, reliable offensive tackle who maximizes their offensive output. Ra’Shede Hageman is the kicker. He has just as much bust potential as any prospect in the draft.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (+14)
Starting total: 1062 points … net from draft day trading: +11% of assets
1.26 – Marcus Smith, OLB, Louisville (459 points, 43% of assets)
2.10 – Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt (320 points, 30% of assets)
3.22 – Josh Huff, WR, Oregon (134 points, 13% of assets)
4.01 – Jaylen Watkins, CB, Florida (105 points, 10% of assets)
5.01 – Taylor Hart, DE, Oregon (59 points, 5% of assets)
5.22 – Ed Reynolds, S, Stanford (48 points, 5% of assets)
7.09 – Beau Allen, DT, Wisconsin (26 points, 2% of assets)
Also acquire Darren Sproles and a 2015 4th round pick. Lost Bryce Brown and Isaac Sopoaga. (Net -3% of assets)
How they got better: The Sproles trade is a stroke of brilliance. Chip Kelly will know how to use him after creating mismatches schematically. Nick Foles already had an easy job and now he has Darren Sproles.
Marcus Smith gives them a succession plan at a premium position. Trent Cole and Brandon Graham may not be long for Philadelphia. While Marcus Smith is more of a project than his selection would lead to believe, he can learn from these guys and take over in time.
Restocking their receiving corps with Matthews and Huff makes them a lot better. Huff will be especially productive as a slot receiver with tremendous physicality, spatial awareness, and ball skills.
Jaylen Watkins is a movable chess piece defensively. He’s physical and light enough on his feet to play cornerback and disciplined enough to play safety.
Taylor Hart is one of the steals of the draft as a 3-4 end. He holds two gaps as well as an interior run defender in the class. He also provides pass rush value. Hart is simply a defensive lineman who is always around the ball.
How they didn’t get better: There were few picks where I thought Philadelphia didn’t improve themselves. The Jordan Matthews pick will come with a cost as he came off the board too early in a deep receiver class. In that offense he will be highly productive and it will be swept under the rug.
Overall: Philadelphia will see out aging members of the team with young talent that fits everything they want to do. Their class shows a clear philosophy for wanting players who win in space. Kelly’s offense creates lots of space after all.
8. Cleveland Browns (-4)
Starting total: 1845 points … net from draft day trading: -23% of assets
1.08 – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State (859 points, 47% of assets)
1.22 – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (506 points, 27% of assets)
2.03 – Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada (361 points, 20% of assets)
3.07 – Christian Kirksey, OLB, Iowa (178 points, 10% of assets)
3.30 – Terrance West, RB, Towson (112 points, 6% of assets)
4.27 – Pierre Desir, CB, Lindenwood (64 points, 3% of assets)
Also acquire a 2015 1st round pick, 2015 4th round pick, and a 2015 6th round pick. Lost Trent Richardson. (Net +36% of assets)
How they got better: Cleveland did some smart dealing. Trading Richardson for a first round pick and netting three picks in 2015, including one that will probably be in the top 15 overall, is smart.
Johnny Manziel will make the Browns a competitive team. They need to build the roster around him still, which will take time. I foresee a Michael Vick-like trajectory for Manziel in terms of game to game inconsistency. He’s still an upgrade for Cleveland, who will have a stringent plan in place.
Bitonio, Kirksey, and Desir all project as contributors. Bitonio held his own against the likes of Anthony Barr and Demarcus Lawrence and is a versatile athlete. Kirksey is one of the more polished coverage linebackers in the class.
How they didn’t get better: The Browns paid a very high price for Justin Gilbert, who’s a risk/reward cornerback in every way. Gilbert is a top level athlete with ball skills, but has little else. His footwork, physicality, and coverage instincts are all rather poor. I don’t see this story ending well.
Terrance West is an average back from everything I have seen. I wished he ran with more elusiveness and had more to provide as a pass blocker and receiver. He’s a brute in terms of power and a decent enough athlete, but he runs high and his statistics flatter him.
Cleveland not coming away with a single receiver is still baffling, no matter how it gets spun. Even if they had Josh Gordon in 2014, they’d still need more. This year’s WR class was considered the deepest in recent memory (probably ever) and Cleveland didn’t value a single one of them enough to select them apparently.
A rebuilding team only getting six picks to the podium is somewhat questionable. Their strong class of undrafted free agents will alleviate that somewhat.
Overall: Cleveland has shown a weird plan. They traded away like crazy in 2013 to stock picks for this season, then dumped the picks they accumulated to trade up as much as possible. Getting that future first from Buffalo is still a coup.
Too many of their picks come with major caveats for me to give my full blessing. Obviously they added talent. It’s hard not to when you have two first round selections to make.
7. Green Bay Packers (+12)
Starting total: 1235 points
1.21 – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama (518 points, 42% of assets)
2.21 – Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State (256 points, 21% of assets)
3.21 – Khyri Thornton, DT, Southern Miss (136 points, 11% of assets)
3.34 – Richard Rodgers, TE, Cal (107 points, 9% of assets)
4.21 – Carl Bradford, OLB, Arizona State (72 points, 6% of assets)
5.21 – Corey Linsley, C, Ohio State (48 points, 4% of assets)
5.36 – Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin (43 points, 3% of assets)
6.21 – Demetri Goodson, CB, Baylor (34 points, 3% of assets)
7.21 – Jeff Janis, WR, Saginaw Valley State (21 points, 2% of assets)
How they got better: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix gives them the rangy safety they desperately needed. His coverage instincts are still coming around, but he’s an athletic, lengthy, and physical safety who will be instantly impactful.
Green Bay may have pulled the trigger on Davante Adams a bit early, but he’s a great fit for Aaron Rodgers and will be productive. Adams can control his body on the sidelines, sky for footballs, and is a valuable redzone target.
If the Packers move Carl Bradford to an inside linebacker spot, he should become a starter over time. He’s an instinctive linebacker who plays with great leverage and will be a valuable rusher.
Jared Abbrederis can contribute immediately as a precise route runner and reliable receiver. Demetri Goodson is a worthwhile project as well.
How they didn’t get better: Richard Rodgers will struggle to beat out Andrew Quarless for targets at the tight end position. Smooth route-running is his most notable strength. Rodgers just doesn’t play with must burst or game-changing athleticism to separate and is a poor blocker.
Khyri Thornton and Corey Linsley project as depth players in the trenches, which isn’t totally a bad thing.
Overall: Green Bay’s first two picks are tremendous fits for what they do and project as starters into a second contract. Getting Bradford and Abbrederis where they did will also pay off.
6. Baltimore Ravens (+5)
Starting total: 1526 points … net from draft day trading: +2% of assets
1.17 – C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama (602 points, 39% of assets)
2.16 – Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State (285 points, 19% of assets)
3.15 – Terrence Brooks, S, Florida State (154 points, 10% of assets)
3.35 – Crockett Gillmore, TE, Colorado State (107 points, 7% of assets)
4.34 – Brent Urban, DT, Virginia (60 points, 4% of assets)
4.38 – Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Coastal Carolina (60 points, 4% of assets)
5.35 – John Urschel, OG, Penn State (43 points, 3% of assets)
6.18 – Keith Wenning, QB, Ball State (35 points, 2% of assets)
7.03 – Michael Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest (28 points, 2% of assets)
Also acquired A.Q. Shipley and Eugene Monroe. Lost a 2015 6th round pick. (Net -10% of assets)
How they got better: Getting their foot in the door with Eugene Monroe for a few mid-round picks was brilliant. They also added value by moving down in the draft, which I’m generally in favor of.
Assuming they passed his medical evaluation, C.J. Mosley will be a rock for that defense for years. He makes up for a lack of spectacular plays with great positioning, tackling technique, and coverage instincts. Mosley is a lot of what a linebacker needs to be.
Terrence Brooks is a steal of a pick, one of the few true free safeties in this class. He should pair with Matt Elam as a safety duo for the long-haul. His positional discipline and range over the top are the perfect counter to Elam’s reckless abandon.
Expect Michael Campanaro to make the team and contribute from the slot. He just finds spaces in the defense and doesn’t let balls hit the deck. That’s very valuable.
How they didn’t get better: I don’t see it with Timmy Jernigan. He’s a catcher of blocks who does a great bullfighter impression. That means he isn’t an aggressor at the line of scrimmage and doesn’t possess the baseline strength needed of a starting defensive lineman.
Crocket Gillmore, though a big target, is too much of a leggy route runner. I see a tight end who will struggle to get open who will play with a quarterback who isn’t really a ball placer.
Overall: I appreciate that the Ravens got nine picks to the podium while also bringing in Eugene Monroe and A.Q. Shipley with their allocated picks. They continue to add young pieces to their defense as well.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2)
Starting total: 2039 points … net from draft day trading: -2% of assets
1.03 – Blake Bortles, QB, Central Florida (1301 points, 64% of assets)
2.07 – Marqise Lee, WR, USC (337 points, 16% of assets)
2.29 – Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State (212 points, 10% of assets)
3.29 – Brandon Linder, OG, Miami (115 points, 6% of assets)
4.14 – Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma (81 points, 4% of assets)
5.04 – Telvin Smith, OLB, Florida State (57 points, 3% of assets)
5.19 – Chris Smith, DE, Arkansas (49 points, 2% of assets)
6.29 – Luke Bowanko, C, Virginia (31 points, 2% of assets)
7.07 – Storm Johnson, RB, Central Florida (26 points, 1% of assets)
Lost Mike Thomas, Eugene Monroe, and Blaine Gabbert. (Net +11% of assets)
How they got better: I can appreciate Jacksonville being aggressive to go get Blake Bortles because their plan seems sound. They already have added pieces around him. Bortles is an instinctive quarterback who has yet to learn the nuances but thrives in chaos and has oodles of potential.
Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson make sense as a receiver tandem to go get. Despite Lee’s average combine showing, he has the explosiveness to win over the top because of his route running. Robinson will do damage underneath and pick up YAC.
Telvin Smith and Chris Smith should both contribute defensively. Telvin Smith’s size will always be an issue, but he plays with physicality and aggressiveness. He has very good coverage value as well.
How they didn’t get better: I was more impressed with Brandon Linder when I watched Seantrel Henderson. I just didn’t see him becoming a third round pick or getting a starting job in the NFL soon. He’s too much of a waist-bender who struggles with balance.
The Aaron Colvin pick is curious more than it is bad. He’s coming off a torn ACL so his health is blurry at best. Colvin is too much of a gambler at the cornerback position and won’t be able to get away with that against NFL offenses.
Overall: It’s pretty simple with Jacksonville. They’re soon to make their passing game a strength rather than a weakness. I am very intrigued by the prospects of a Blake Bortles, Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson trio.
4. Oakland Raiders (+2)
Starting total: 1790 points … net from draft day trading: +2% of assets
1.05 – Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo (1029 points, 57% of assets)
2.04 – Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State (355 points, 20% of assets)
3.17 – Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State (148 points, 8% of assets)
4.07 – Justin Ellis, DT, Louisiana Tech (91 points, 5% of assets)
4.16 – Keith McGill, CB, Utah (78 points, 4% of assets)
7.04 – Travis Carrie, CB, Ohio (28 points, 2% of assets)
7.20 – Shelby Harris, DE, Illinois State (21 points, 1% of assets)
7.32 – Jonathan Dowling, S, Western Kentucky (17 points, 1% of assets)
Also acquired Matt Flynn and Matt Schaub. Lost Carson Palmer (partial) and Terrelle Pryor. (Net -3% of assets)
How they got better: How Oakland uses Khalil Mack in the 4-3 will make a big difference. He’s a pass-rusher. If they play him at depth and ask him to read keys very often, he will be a liability. Letting him rush off the edge and his speed, power, and repertoire of moves will come to fruition.
I was scared the Raiders would ride off into the sunset with Matt Schaub. The plan is the important part here. A viable plan has not really existed for the Raiders at this position ever since Jamarcus Russell.
Gabe Jackson and Justin Ellis should both become starters on their respective lines. Jackson is a fundamentally sound offensive guard who’s light enough on his feet to get by. Ellis is a bit more raw but has the potential to be a disruptive nose tackle who doesn’t entirely lack pass-rush skills.
How they didn’t get better: Keith McGill is a project at cornerback. He’s also over age at 25 years old. McGill wasn’t even that effective for Utah in 2013. He plays too much of a reactive style instead of anticipatory yet doesn’t have the recovery speed and short-area quickness to get away with it.
I see a ceiling on what Derek Carr can ever become in the NFL, even with a year to sit behind Matt Schaub. His pocket presence is quite poor. NFL defensive coordinators feast on those quarterbacks. It could be his fatal flaw and it’s a difficult one to improve upon.
Overall: The Raiders went and got themselves quality players who can start right away and improve their team. They haven’t had many drafts lately where anyone could say that.
3. Minnesota Vikings (+6)
Starting total: 1574 points … net from draft day trading: +2% of assets
1.09 – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA (829 points, 53% of assets)
1.32 – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville (395 points, 25% of assets)
3.08 – Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State (175 points, 11% of assets)
3.32 – Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern (107 points, 7% of assets)
5.05 – David Yankey, OG, Stanford (56 points, 4% of assets)
6.06 – Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech (40 points, 3% of assets)
6.08 – Kendall James, CB, Maine (39 points, 3% of assets)
7.05 – Shamar Stephen, DT, Connecticut (27 points, 2% of assets)
7.08 – Brandon Watts, OLB, Georgia Tech (26 points, 2% of assets)
7.10 – Jabari Price, CB, North Carolina (25 points, 2% of assets)
Lost Percy Harvin (partial).
How they got better: The Vikings must have sold their souls to some higher being to have Teddy Bridgewater last as long as he did. Bridgewater is the most developed quarterback in the most important areas such as close accuracy, anticipation, and pocket presence. He fits what the Vikings have as well.
Scott Crichton was made for a Mike Zimmer defense. He will see the field a lot as a rookie even though he’s not a starter. Crichton is a bully as a run defender and has value as an interior pass rusher. His selection furthers their building of the front seven.
I was never in the David Yankey fan club. Getting him in the fifth round is fine though. He’ll presumably have a year to sit on the bench before getting a chance at the left guard spot. His positional versatility is valuable as well.
The projection of Antone Exum comes down to his health. He was poor in 2013 coming off a torn ACL in the off-season. In 2012 he was a physical cornerback with recovery speed and ball skills. He should play safety for the Vikings.
How they didn’t get better: Anthony Barr is more of a project than his draft slot would indicate. His role in the defense appears to be more of a niche role at this point than a full-time player. I think Anthony Barr becomes an effective player over time, but early returns could be scarce.
Jerick McKinnon is a shot in the dark. He has little experience protecting the quarterback or catching passes. News flash, that’s what the Vikings drafted him for.
Overall: Minnesota has taken a step towards quickly getting back in the NFC North combination. If there’s one way to immediately improve an NFL team, it’s getting a viable quarterback and loading the front seven defensively.
2. St. Louis Rams (+12)
Starting total: 1452 points … net from draft day trading: -2% of assets
1.02 – Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn (1518 points, 105% of assets)
1.13 – Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh (713 points, 49% of assets)
2.09 – Lamarcus Joyner, CB, Florida State (325 points, 22% of assets)
3.11 – Tre Mason, RB, Auburn (166 points, 11% of assets)
4.10 – Mo Alexander, S, Utah State (87 points, 6% of assets)
6.12 – E.J. Gaines, CB, Missouri (38 points, 3% of assets)
6.38 – Garrett Gilbert, QB, SMU (29 points, 2% of assets)
7.11 – Mitchell Van Dyk, OT, Portland State (25 points, 2% of assets)
7.26 – Christian Bryant, S, Ohio State (19 points, 1% of assets)
7.34 – Michael Sam, DE, Missouri (17 points, 1% of assets)
Acquired #2 overall in Robert Griffin III trade. Lost Josh Gordy. (Net +106% of assets)
How they got better: By hustling Washington in the RG3 trade, St. Louis makes out like bandits. Greg Robinson is the outcome. It appears he will start at guard and eventually move back outside. That will help hide some of his inconsistency and inexperience, but bring out his rare strength and athleticism.
The Rams also got the most disruptive interior rusher in the class in Aaron Donald, who is another tremendous athlete. Donald is an absolute terror coming off the ball and will split gaps in an instant. He’s a better run defender than given credit for as well.
Tre Mason will pair with Zac Stacy to round out an effective backfield. Mason runs with terrific balance and lateral agility. He was the perfect back for Guz Malzahn’s system, so I’m interested to see how he fits as an NFL back now.
Both E.J. Gaines and Christian Bryant will present the Rams with intriguing options as far as late-round picks go.
How they didn’t get better: St. Louis may be chasing what the Cardinals have in Tyrann Mathieu with Lamarcus Joyner, but they won’t get it. Joyner is small and slow. He isn’t the play-maker Mathieu is and doesn’t have those instincts. Florida State’s defense lifted his play and got him drafted in the second round.
The quarterback position is the one where I’ll analyze need, because it’s so prevalent. The Rams will rue not bringing in viable competition for Sam Bradford.
Overall: The first two picks of St. Louis’ class solidified a very high ranking. The building they have done in the trenches in recent years is impressive and will pay off.
1. Houston Texans (even)
Starting total: 2664 points … net from draft day trading: -1% of assets
1.01 – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina (1747 points, 66% of assets)
2.01 – Xavier Su’a-Filo, OG, UCLA (378 points, 14% of assets)
3.01 – C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa (197 points, 7% of assets)
3.19 – Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame (142 points, 5% of assets)
4.35 – Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh (60 points, 2% of assets)
6.01 – Jeoffrey Pagan, DT, Alabama (43 points, 2% of assets)
6.05 – Alfred Blue, RB, LSU (41 points, 2% of assets)
6.35 – Jay Prosch, FB, Auburn (29 points, 1% of assets)
7.01 – Andre Hal, CB, Vanderbilt (29 points, 1% of assets)
7.41 – Lonnie Ballentine, S, Memphis (17 points, 1% of assets)
Lost Matt Schaub. (Net +2% of assets)
How they got better: Houston fell into the best player in the draft in Jadeveon Clowney. Pairing him with J.J. Watt is unfair. Clowney is an uncommon athlete with size, power, and explosiveness. His dip in production is not an overarching concern headed into the NFL.
The Texans then went and added the best interior offensive lineman in the draft. Xavier Su’a-Filo is a skilled mover and a strong blocker with versatility to play inside and out. He’ll play guard for Houston and will be a reliable player all-around.
Bill O’Brien’s plans become even clearer with C.J. Fiedorowicz picks. CJF was criminally underused at Iowa. He’s more of a vertical threat than given credit for and has soft hands as a receiver.
Louis Nix lasting until the third round was surprising and the Texans jumped. He’ll be the point man for their 3-4 defense. For Nix, it’s a matter of getting back to his 2012 form when he was much more than a space-eater.
How they didn’t get better: The Texans didn’t get a viable quarterback option. Tom Savage was a middling player for Pitt in 2013. He’s slow to release, often staring down his receivers. His pocket presence isn’t what it will need to be either. They missed an opportunity by not trading up for Teddy Bridgewater.
Both Alfred Blue and Jeoffrey Pagan look like average players at very best despite the schools they come from.
Overall: The Texans can quickly get back into playoff contention in a weak division with the way they’ve built themselves in the trenches. A defensive line with Watt, Clowney, and Nix has the potential to be absolutely devastating.
